THE SEVENTH GENERAL ELECTIONS OF THE FOURTH REPUBLIC

The fourth republic has some many interesting computations in terms of political electioneering. Many elections cognoscente have always predicted winners, especially the presidential election based on certain factors. But this time round a lot of them woefully failed in their projections or opinion surveys. Individuals and institutions such as Ben Ephson, the BNI,Synovate Ghana, Restart International, Centre for Policy Analysis and Governance Research, etc all predicted a high score of 53 or more percentage victory in favour of President John Dramani Mahama and the NDC but, these figures were thrown back at them in the face by Ghanaian electorates.The most hilarious of all is the public declaration or better still, challenge by the Gbese Mantse to freely and willingly abdicate his stool if the NDC does not win the 7th December polls. These numerous surveys could not even tell us that, we were going to experience a widespread voter apathy and despondency especially in the Volta Region for the NDC or there was going to, at least, be a history by the NPP in the Upper Manya Krobo constituency. The so-called pollsters could not read in between the lines and tell us that, there will be a break in chain of names that are usually associated with the presidency of Ghana. This shows that, Ghanaian electorates can “think far” and are unwavering by any mental manipulation, pre-conditioning or spin doctoring by political parties and their allies. On the other hand, some individuals and media houses called the 2016 elections and it came to pass. For instance, on the night of election, whiles results were being counted at polling stations and coalition being done across all the constituency centres, Joy FM and Joy News TV started to project Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and the NPP for the December 7, 2016 general elections. This was done by the indefatigable and most oratorical Evans Mensah. Most interestingly, he did so with a caveat and with certitude, and to paraphrase him, he says give me results from the Central region, Greater Accra and Brong Ahafo and I will tell you who wins the elections. In supposition, his election call was so, not based on any opinion poll story but based on Ghana’s electoral history. And, he had everything right days before the official declaration by the EC chairperson – Madam Charlotte Osei.

The seventh general elections of the fourth Republic is replete with a lot of historical antecedents which have become pointers or directional indicators for, fore-telling winners of our general elections. Going by these historical indicators, these have become foreshadows for winning political power. Some of these are scientific whilst others are casual and have invariably, favoured the two political gladiators in Ghana, ie, the NDC and NPP.

First of all, most election predictors take lead from the three swing regions. These three swing regions – Central, Greater Accra and Brong Ahafo have always dictated political space as to which party wins the majority seats in parliament and the penultimate and this is underpinned in Evans Mensah’s certitude in calling the December 7, 2016 election in favour of Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and the NPP way ahead of time.

Again, the issue of who is the speaker of parliament of the ruling government has also come up and that indicator has been accepted by many Ghanaians, at least for now as a determinant. This is most intriguing and fascinating situation in the political history of Ghana's constitutional governance as a republic. As posited by Paul Adom Otchere of Good Evening fame – an astute journalist with profundity. From Sir Emmanuel Charles Quist (1951 – 1957), Hon. Justice Nii Amaa Ollenu (1969 – 1971), Hon. Justice J. Hackenburg Griffiths-Randolph (1979 – 1981), Rt. Hon. Justice D. F. Annan (1993 – 2001) and Rt. Hon. Peter Ala Adjetey (2001 – 2005) to Rt. Hon. Begyina Sakyi Hughes  Hughes (2005 – 2009) "Up until Begyina Sakyi Hughes, all the speakers of parliament had been Gas from Accra. That had been the cultural tradition. Because, somehow, Dr. Nkrumah felt that, because the House of Parliament sits in Accra, the glorious seat of parliament must be allowed to be given to the Gas”. This means, anytime there is a non-Ga as the speaker of parliament, the governing party loses the next general elections.Though, some political observers are a bit skeptical of the veracity of this argument,this however, is been proven to be the case, at least, since the fourth parliament of the fourth republic.

Furthermore, one palpable and perhaps the most widely accepted determinant, is the issue of the need for change. Ghanaian electorates have charted a voting pattern which has become a tradition. This, prior to the December 7, 2016 general elections I constantly mentioned to people that, forget about any pollster whether scientific or not, I will be on the spot, to call any election after every eight years. Based on this, I always said “The NPP was going to win the December 7, 2016 general elections”. I remember mentioning this to lawyer Yaw Buabeng Asamoah – the Hon. MP-elect for Adenta Constituency. He asked, whether I was sure. I answered in the affirmative and told him that, Ghana has an electoral history. From 1992 till date, the Ghanaian electorates have generously given to both NDC and NPP eight years each in alternation. And, we are yet to go beyond the two term or eight year political mantra where the political cycle reads a 360 degree for the incumbent. This “need for change mantra” will only be broken by a government that can keep to its promises and even go the extra mile for Ghanaians in terms of creating jobs for the teeming youth, infrastructural development, solving basic needs such as portable water, agriculture, education, health, poor roads, managing the economy very well at the macro level and also putting stringent measures to curb corruption at the base. I also said that, “every third timer from either of the two big parties surely wins the general elections, so, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo was going to win”. Aside the above mentioned indicators that have always predicted winners of Ghana’s general elections, there are many more factors, which political analysts can better elucidate as it might be the case for this NPP candidate.

Perhaps or certainly, there is one seemingly peculiar incidence, either by providence or coincidence, that I want to bring to the notice of political observers in Ghana.“It is about a man I dedicate, this write up to because his victory can educate”. This is a man who has made history in the fourth republic on a subtle note. He switched his political career from his mother’s home constituency to his constituency of residency. This is not to say, he is the only person who has done so. At least mention can be made about Ras Mubaraq of the NDC, but the two instances are vastly different and are in sharp reverse to each other. In the case of this man, he won his first election to parliament as an independent candidate after defecting from his mother party – the NDC after a contestable primaries. He stood on the ticket of NPP in the next general elections which he won but lost in his third and fourth bids to enter parliament on the NPP ticket in the same constituency. When he said enough to his mother’s constituency and bided it farewell, his constituency of residence welcomed him. The interesting aspect about him is that, in his two terms in parliament, he won with the presidential candidate of the NPP party, for the two times he lost, he went down with the NPP presidential candidate. Isn’t this interesting! The most baffling and intriguing of all is that, he mentioned it to us that he was going to win the December 7, 2016 parliamentary election and he would come up with Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo – the NPP presidential candidate. Allah being so good, answered his prayer and his prediction came to pass. Not only did Nana Akufo-Addo win the presidential election but also, wins this man’s constituency for the first time ever in the history of the fourth republican dispensation. With this history, I can confidently say, this man is one of the determinants of elections in the fourth republic.

As I dedicate this piece to him it would not be out of place to 'educate' about him. He whipped out the incumbent Member of Parliament in a very convincing manner, at a bizarre, disgraceful and humiliating fashion. Most interestingly, for the first time in the annals of the NPP and Ghana’s political stage as far as this constituency is concerned, he redeemed and salvaged the image of the NPP party which culminated in the overwhelming and historic victory of Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo. The NPP has always earned almost absurd vote figures from this particular constituency since the coming into been, the fourth republic. But, this man won the incumbent NDC candidate with a whopping difference of 8,633 which is 27.3(%) percent of the incumbent candidate’s total valid votes and almost seven times of the total valid votes cast for the other candidates put together. He also appreciated Nana Addo’s total valid votes by 2,943 which is 8.5 in percentage terms. This is no means, a resounding victory for him and the NPP party. The messiah has arrived for the NPP with regards to this constituency and I hope he will survive it. With the aura of love and likeness surrounding his persona, he was greeted with welcomes in his campaigns throughout the length and breadth of the constituency publicly and more on the quiet. After his primary’s victory, he immediately won the hearts of prospective electorates and his constituents. He came into the contest with a purpose of character and determination. He put a psyche of attitude, issue based arguments and human face to his campaign strategy, whilst his closest contender was in a comfortable lead in discussing telenovelas on TV. These afforded him the opportunity to make huge in-roads into places that were considered, hitherto, “a no go area” for the NPP. The massive affinity he created among average voters in the constituency made him an instant cynosure and political face of the constituency. People were just patiently waiting for the date of ballots to generously dish out their mandate to this amiable and affable gentleman.

Words cannot adequately describe my feeling for this man but at least, I am much elated to have this man – Hon. Boniface Abubakar Saddique as my Member of Parliament – Elect.

The people of Madina are so fortunate and highly favoured by the almighty Allah to have bestowed upon them a gift such as Boniface as their Member of Parliament. His is an intellectual gem, intelligently genius, smart and has a lot of entrepreneurial acumen. I think strongly that, it will be inappropriate and uncouth for me to sing his appellation when his records as both a sector and regional minister and for that matter, a cabinet minister, speak for themselves. I believe he is going to be one of the finest personalities in the incoming government and people should watch out for him. Following his campaign, he has demonstrably fashioned out very comprehensive programmes, policies and workable solutions to tackling debilitating problems that have bedeviled the people of Madina and the constituency. He will be putting in place policies and programmmes to harness and enhance especially, the ability and talent of the youth in their various endeavours and by and large, empower them to be self-reliant. He will again, ensure infrastructural development such as hospital and retooling of existing poly clinics and health facilities in the constituency. Above all, he will work with or alongside the proposed programmes of the incoming government to bring relief to the suffering masses of Ghana. May the almighty Allah help this fine and God-fearing gentleman, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo and the NPP administration to succeed ‘elephantinely’.

Thnx!

Naa Gbewaah Sidiq's Folder.